Signs are popping up.
Signs are popping up.
The Potomac Nationals, a minor league affiliate of the Washington Nationals, held a straw poll for president at one of their games last weekend. The winner was Republican nominee Donald Trump. Second place was Democrat Hillary Clinton, all write candidates combined for third, followed in fourth place by Libertarian Gary Johnson and in a distant last place was Green nominee Jill Stein.
Trump’s win here could actually mean something. Let’s break it down, without looking too deep into this. First off, the Potomac Nationals play in Prince William County, Virginia’s election bellwether. So goes Prince William County, so goes the rest of Virginia, right? Trumpsters sure hope so.
Next let’s look at the make-up of your average baseball game crowd. Baseball is a sport which honors America and celebrates our great country throughout each game, thus attracting a more patriotic crowd than the local movie theater. That said, the crowd would be heavily Republican, as the radical left’s ideology and self-loathing go hand-in-hand. So that would mean that this poll was too Republican to be a representative sample of Virginia’s electorate, which is too bad for the Trumpsters because The Donald only won by three points.
Next, let’s look at the how bad Libertarian Johnson and Green Stein did. Wow, their low numbers are depressing for anyone who thinks a third party candidate may actually win one state this year. All write-ins combined barely beat Johnson and destroyed Stein. It was nice thinking that the Feel The Bern supporters were going to throw their vote to Stein over Hillary, but that may not happen to the degree needed for Trump to win. No, I wouldn’t expect many Bernie Sanders supporters to be baseball fans (a score in baseball determines that only one team can win), but I was still hoping for more protest votes from Democrats who have ethics and a respect for the rule of law.
With professional, scientific polling showing Hillary Clinton winning easily, we are left with basically this; cause to drum up a straw poll win from a minor league baseball game as evidence that Donald Trump ain’t doing that bad.
But a win is a win, so let’s just call this one a Trump win.
The above picture is a screenshot from the Potomac Nationals Facebook page.
I can’t believe this t-shirt is available for sale at the official Trump campaign store. You can check it out here. The description is pretty funny. I need a shirt that just says “#Hashtag” on it, that would be cool.
Vice Presidential nominee and Indiana Governor Mike Pence will be In Loudoun County on Saturday August 27 at Patrick Henry College for a rally. If you are around then try to make it out. These rallies are pretty much the substitute for anything that would pretend to be a ground game, so I guess they are important, and full of undecided voters, and I have great swamp land for sale too, but that’s another matter.
In the run up to Virginia’s primary Marco Rubio held a rally at Patrick Henry College. The large crowd had a lot of young people in it and the event helped Rubio win the Virginia’s 10th Congressional District.
At the time of this posting, the event is not yet listed on the Trump website, hopefully it will be updated soon. You will need tickets to attend, please check back.
It is rare to hear pro athletes drop presidential campaign tag lines, but Carmelo Antony did so after winning a gold medal with Team USA Basketball yesterday when he said, “America will be great again, I believe that.” Not exactly an endorsement, but pretty sweet free media.
Donald Trump has benefited from so much free media during this race that he has created a new model for future presidential candidates to shoot for. This latest soundbite from one of basketball’s biggest names most likely has nothing at all to do with Trump, but it was said on NBC just minutes after the gold medal game had ended in front of national TV audience. Even with ratings of this year’s Olympics down, that’s some pretty yuuuuge publicity.
Of course this soundbite likely has absolutely nothing to do with Trump, but it could be evidence of how the media has helped push Trump into pop culture. Even presidential candidates have to deal with low name ID. Mitt Romney was a governor from the northeast and Bill Clinton a governor from the south and both of them were little known to voters in regions opposite theirs. But Trump had high name ID from the start thanks to his place in pop culture. Whether it is from being in real estate, on TV, or in the news, the Trump name is a name that is recognizable. Add to that all the free media Trump received starting with his official announcement and it is easy to understand how his name and his message have reached a lot of people. And that reach, over and over again, may be starting to sink into the minds of voters who in the past were resistant to messages from the Republican Party. There is a chance that even the most irate naysayer of Trump could conclude that, like it or not, he’s right!
The Trump phenomenon is real. But is it enough to carry the campaign over the finish line?
The Trump campaign sent out a fundraising email this morning. The part that caught my eye was the following;
“Can you imagine if I set up a secret server, stored top secret information on it, jeopardized our national security, deleted 3O,OOO records, LIED about it, and then used the defense that my brain ‘short-circuited’?”
Seriously, how can you argue with that?
It is truly unbelievable the free ride the Democrats and the media have given Hillary Clinton. She does not have to own up to anything.
I just don’t understand how any of the Feel The Bern voters could vote for her. Hillary epitomizes everything that the Bernie Sanders campaign was running against. So it would not be surprising if Green Party nominee Jill Stein gets a lot of voters from traditional Democratic voters.
Stein is a physician who rails against success, hates ExxonMobil, supports $15 minimum wage, and will hit hard on all the left’s favorite hard-partisan talking points. All perfect for former Sanders supporters.
But more importantly, if you are a Democrat ask yourself who do you trust more, Hillary Clinton or Jill Stein?
It’s ok Democrats, the ballot box is a sanctuary, Hillary and her goons won’t know.
Strange items continue to come from the Trump for President campaign. If it is not a gaffe or a downright mistake, it is something that is needlessly odd. The latest to fit into that last category is veep candidate Mike Pence’s endorsement of Rep. Paul Ryan in the upcoming Wisconsin primary. Pence, for whatever reason, included in his endorsement a line about having permission from The Donald to do so; “Donald Trump and I spoke this morning and he strongly encouraged me to support Paul Ryan.” Weird.
Below is a picture of the Pence endorsement that we grabbed from his Facebook page.
The Donald will be in Loudoun County on Tuesday, August 2nd, at 11am. Follow the link below to sign-up.
Presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump officially named Indiana Governor Mike Pence as his choice for vice president over the weekend. This is a good pick which should help the Republican ticket.
Pence brings a lot of positives to the race. He is an experienced and professional politician, but not a Washington or establishment insider. He is polished and disciplined as a communicator and is a popular governor. And Pence’s cornbread fed Indiana offers a geographical and lifestyle balance to the swanky northeastern real estate mogul in Trump. Pence’s biggest negative would have to be his walkback on religious freedom, which was very disappointing and a spoiled opportunity to push back against the radical left and their bullies. Nevertheless, this is a solid pick all-around.
But why would Pence take it? The governor of Indiana is a pretty sweet gig. Pence is up for re-election this year and Indiana law does not allow him to run for governor and vice president. So his team had to withdraw his name from the ballot for governor, which created a mad dash from a few Republicans who quickly filed to replace Pence. Pence would have probably cruised to re-election. But now he has taken that option off the table to take a risk in a volatile candidate with an unpredictable national electorate. If Pence thinks this is his best route to becoming president then I think he may have miscalculated. Republicans like governors and voters don’t like vice presidents. Pence shoring up conservative policies and keeping his state an attractive place for businesses would put him in a stronger position for a run for the White House then having to either run on the Trump platform as his successor or run as a Trump supporter who is always guilty by association for this and that. Pence is better off being governor.
For the Party and the country this a good move by Pence. We are better off with him than Newt Gingrich, who was rumored to be the veep pick right up until the official announcement. I am a fan of Gingrich, but he is too polarizing. He would have fit into the Democrats’ narrative of radical Rs and whatnot, and with Gingrich’s negatives he would have turned off more than he would have attracted. Gingrich is much better suited for a role elsewhere than vice president anyway. It would not be surprising if the former House Speaker is tapped for chief of staff in a Trump administration.
Overall Donald Trump’s pick of Mike Pence is a solid choice. It is not a gamble at all and serves as an example of an appropriate result from a measured and careful vetting process, which could further serve as an example of how Trump would shape his administration. This is an impressive start to the convention for the Trump team.
Below is a video from YouTube of Donald Trump’s remarks on Saturday to the National Rifle Association Institute for Legislative Action Leadership Forum. After a drawn out lead-in Trump eventually gets to the point that guns save lives. He talks about how some terrorist attacks could have been countered had guns been on the innocents. Then he hits Hillary Clinton for her anti-2nd Amendment positions.
For the most part, Trump uses his time to bounce back and forth from solid pro-2A talking points to a recap of his polling numbers and a list of some of wins in the primary. There is no laser focus. He talks about guns, coal mines, the Supreme Court, all in-between mentioning his pro-2A positions.
Here are a few quotes from Trump;
“We’re getting rid of gun free zones.”
“We should have non-teleprompter speeches only when you’re running for president, you find out about people. The other way you don’t find out about anybody.”
“We’re going to win them all.”
“I like women more than men. Come on women, let’s go. Come on.”
Guest Post by Shak Hill
Raccoons are bad. When Robin and I moved into our first home after leaving the military, we discovered a raccoon family had moved in just before us, living in the ceiling of the garage. A story attributed to Newt Gingrich about the phenomenon of Donald Trump compared him to a raccoon exterminator. The belief is, we don’t care about the person who exterminates the raccoons, we just want the problem fixed.
With Donald Trump the presumptive nominee, many are now wondering whether they should leave the Republican Party. I don’t propose there exists the perfect answer to this question. But I understand why people are asking it (because we also want the raccoon problem fixed).
For the record, I’m not a “NeverTrump” person. In the two-party system that America enjoys (or, increasingly laments), the question is binary: Democrat or Republican. As a question with two possible answers, I can understand supporting him despite his lack of conservative track record. It is simply a pragmatic response.
But I’m not an “AlwaysTrump” person, either. What amazes me is that so many people are willing to table their core beliefs to support Donald Trump. Case in point: if you are arguing with a big Trump fan and you criticize Trump on any level for any action, eventually you often become the bad guy in the course of that argument. “You don’t understand!” “You don’t get it!”
No, I think I do. As a Major League Soccer (MLS) Official and a United States Basketball League (USBL) Official, I saw many games won by one play. Often, that single moment turned the tide of the game and secured victory.
Politics is not entirely different from sports. To use a football analogy: with Donald Trump, you are voting to start a quarterback in the Super Bowl who has never thrown a pass. Why? Because you are tired of interceptions and losses. You are the guy at home who keeps yelling at his TV on Sunday afternoons: “Start a guy from the stands! He’s gotta be better than this guy!!”
Yes, in the far flung possibilities of mathematics, it is possible that the random guy in the mezzanine might actually be better than your quarterback. Trump’s argument is that since he has done all the things to put him in the owner’s box, he should therefore be on the field. Voters believed him. They could have chosen from many more Republican candidates who were, on any logical level, more qualified than Mr. Trump. Voters only have Super Tuesdays, not Super Bowls, but many of those who voted in Republican primaries and conventions decided to start a guy from the stands.
Mr. Trump, you are now the quarterback. Many of my conservative friends want to know your first Supreme Court “play”. Release your selection of who you are going to nominate – so we can determine if your first moment will turn the tide of your administration and secure victory for our country.
As for whether to leave the Republican Party, I think we need to begin by asking a broader question: What do we believe? Do our beliefs lead us to be Republicans, or does the Republican Party lead us to our beliefs?
My support about a “party” is fundamentally tied to ideas: the ideas of freedom, liberty and the rule of law. Freedom is what I personally fought for as a graduate of the Air Force Academy (class of 1988), a combat pilot (Desert Storm) and now the father of two boys in the Army — who represent the fourth consecutive generation of my family to serve in uniform for our country. Liberty is to use our Creator given talents without crushing government intervention. Rule of law is adhering to the original contract with America – the Constitution.
One last thing, which is actually the first thing. Ultimately, my principles are not dictated by Reince Preibus or Donald Trump—they are formed in my heart by my Creator. And that will never change.
Yes, I too want the raccoon problem solved. But I need to know what comes after the problem is solved. Mr. Trump, this is your moment. This is your first play in the big game. We want to support you, but we need to know your Supreme Court pick.
Shak Hill is a veteran of the U.S. Air Force and former Republican candidate for U.S. Senate.
Cartoon by Gary Varvel at the Indy Star.
Rahm Emanuel donor Donald Trump has been running a general election style campaign from the beginning. He has been the beneficiary of a ton of free media. He has done well, better than expected. In fact, Trump has won more delegates than any other Rahm Emanuel donor seeking a Republican Party nomination… ever.
But the Trump campaign’s lack of prioritizing their resources toward the state convention process is starting to catch up with them.
This is a stark contrast from Senator Ted Cruz. The Cruz Crew is mobilized for the conventions thanks to a concentrated focus on each states delegate allocation process. Cruz is running 50 state campaigns, not a national mass media blitz. The difference between the Trump and Cruz campaigns in this regard is now showing up.
A poorly organized convention effort by Trump in Colorado resulted in their campaign winning zero delegates to the national convention. Below is a photo from a Colorado convention goer who points out that the Trump sample ballot had wrong info on it. And here in Virginia on Saturday, Trump won only one delegate from the 9th District, a district Trump carried in the primary with 47% of the vote (note that 47% is another plurality and not a majority).
When the Republican National Convention in Cleveland comes to order in late July no candidate will have the majority of delegates. A second ballot will take place. On that second ballot there will be a huge upswing in votes for Ted Cruz. The Rahm Emanuel donor won’t win.
The Hill published an article yesterday identifying ten Republican controlled congressional seats that may be in play for the Democrats to flip if Rahm Emanuel donor Donald Trump is the Republican nominee. Among the list is Virginias 10th District, currently held by Rep. Barbara Comstock.
From The Hill;
Rep. Barbara Comstocks (R-Va.) district consists of Beltway suburbs and she has sought to cast herself as a moderate whos bucked her party when it comes to local issues.
Her district was already a Democratic target, but with a nominee like Trump or Cruz — who have trashed the Washington establishment– her seat was upgraded to the Lean Republican category.
She won her seat by a wide margin in 2014, but it split in the last two presidential cycles. In 2008, Obama won by almost 3 points while Romney won her district by 1 point in 2012.
Democrats recruited a high-profile candidate: real estate executive LuAnn Bennett, whos the ex-wife to former Rep. Jerry Moran (D-Va.), and she has sought to tie Comstock to Trump.
Comstock, whos a former Rubio supporter, has yet to say whether shed back Trump as the nominee.
But the first-term congresswoman is already distancing herself from Trump. Late last year, she chided him for his ban on Muslims, calling it unconstitutional. And she donated her 2014 $3,000 contribution from him to two rehabilitation centers for wounded veterans in her district.
Comstock was a big backer of Mitt Romney in 2012, but that was when she was in a Delegate seat and during a year that didnt involve her running for re-election. Now she will be forced to run, to some degree, with the top of the ticket. Whether or not Comstock chooses to be a Party teammate or a lone candidate on an island will be up to her. It will be interesting to see how she plays this. In her past runs for Delegate she wasnt able to lift a finger for the rest of the ticket and we suspect the same will happen this time too, regardless of who the presidential nominee is.
As for Comstocks opponent, LuAnn Bennett, she showed up at the wrong precinct to vote for the presidential primary on March 1st, probably because she lives in D.C. She owns property somewhere in Virginia, but she doesnt spend her days and nights in the 10th. This should matter to voters, but it doesnt matter to the Democratic Party, who has given Bennett an uncontested path to their congressional nomination. This is the first we have heard of a candidate for congress, or for any office for that matter, showing up at the wrong location to vote. Pretty embarrassing.
Rep. Comstock, who has also received a clear path for nomination, is described in The Hills article as a moderate whos bucked her party when it comes to local issues. We assume that description was influenced by Comstocks 45% rating from Heritage Action (GOP House average is 63%) and by Comstocks F grade and a score of 25% from Conservative Review (Rep. Dave Brat received an A for his 100% score and California Democrat Maxine Waters scored 26% for her F grade).
Whatever happens at the top of ticket will always have a, positive or negative, downward effect on the rest of the ticket. And how individual candidates run with the Partys other nominees will always be left to the individual campaigns. This year may be the exception to a lot of rules, but dont expect that to have any effect on how Rep. Barbara Comstock will run for re-election. And you can also expect her to win.
Well, that didn’t take long. Fresh off Rahm Emanuel donor Donald Trump’s inappropriate threat on Senator Ted Cruz’s wife, we are now treated to a meme that straight up attacks Mrs. Cruz. I guess this asshole doesn’t think he needs women to vote for him. Maybe Trump thinks something crazy like he “could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and [he] wouldn’t lose voters.” Oops. Bad example.
Trump needs to grow a pair and stop attacking his opponent’s wife. He needs to act like a man, not like the spoiled little brat who always got his way thanks to his daddy’s fortune. Character matters and Trump ain’t showing us any character worth supporting.
Here is a screen shot from Rahm Emanuel donor Donald Trump’s Twitter account. Unbelievable.
To all the supporters of Rahm Emanuel donor Donald Trump, how is threatening an opponent’s wife appropriate?
Before your classic sandbox defense that Trump was hit first, know that the pro-Cruz Super PAC that ran the ad of Trump’s wife has absolutely no connection to the Ted Cruz campaign. By law, the PAC can’t coordinate with the campaign and vice versa. And Trump knows this. But according to the Rahm Emanuel campaign playbook, you don’t waste a good crisis. So Trump chose a dishonest path to take a shot at his rival to score political points. Here, Trump used his wife as an opportunity to attack someone else’s wife, which is deplorable.
Run on the issues, Mr. Trump. Show us you can dive beneath the surface a little and offer real understanding with real solutions to identified problems. Not, “many people like it,” and “I’m very good with the blacks.” Give us more detail and stay away from attacking anyone’s wife. Try to act presidential. Try to act professional. Just try harder, because when you respond to the wrong person with threats on that person’s wife you are not choosing to be professional and you are not choosing to be presidential. Clean it up now!
So for those who still support Rahm Emanuel donor Donald Trump, the time has come. Trump had a good run. Chin up. But now is the time to remove yourself from the evils of the Trump campaign. Do so now before Trump decides to “spill the beans on your wife,” or someone close to you. Seriously. I am writing this as a friend. Fun is fun until someone gets hurt. Trump will leave a pile of ashes in his wake, he already has.
“A republic, if you can keep it,” was a prophetic warning against allowing tyrants to take over. In Virginia, we say “Sic Semper Tyrannis,” because we do not embrace tyrants. Time to Choose Cruz.
This morning on ABC’s This Week with [Clinton donor] George Stephanopoulos, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus explained why Rahm Emanuel donor Donald Trump hasn’t won the nomination, when he said;
“A plurality is a minority and a minority doesn’t choose for the majority.”
The magic number is 1,237, which represents a, wait for it, majority of delegates. The rules are the rules and rules say that our party process requires a majority of delegates to nominate our presidential candidate. It is pretty simple.
But Trump doesn’t understand this at all. He has openly advocated for the rules to be changed during the game to accommodate him. Trump said, “I think whoever gets to that top position as opposed to solving that artificial number that was set by somebody, which is a very random number, I think that whoever gets the most delegates should win.” Shocker that a billionaire insists on only playing by his rules as he sees fit. A good thing for everyone involved is that our Party is governed by rules, at least for the most part anyway. But let’s breakdown Trump’s quote in search of greater understanding.
He started with “whoever gets to that top position.” Ok, his quote is from March 10 of this year, when he had a sizable lead in delegates. Would he advocate for a rule change during the game if he were in second place? Next he said, in regards to the majority threshold of 1,237 delegates, “which is a very random number.” Oh my. It’s not random at all. First off, it is the minimum needed for a majority, and a majority is needed to win. Secondly, the number is determined based on an equation of population and Republican Party strength. Again, not random at all, but instead, very deliberate. And finally, Trump said, “whoever gets the most delegates should win,” which can only be described as changing the rules from a majority to a plurality during the game.
The math is simple and Rahm Emanuel donor Donald Trump either doesn’t understand or doesn’t care. Good thing for the country is that a majority of Republicans do care. So far, Trump has failed to capture a majority of Republicans. This will hopefully continue so that we can nominate a true conservative and a real member of the Republican Party on the second ballot at the National Convention. So when Trump loses just remember the words of the chairman; “A plurality is a minority and a minority doesn’t choose for the majority.”
Senator Marco Rubio left the presidential race last night immediately following a big lost in his home state of Florida. His departure leaves 169 Rubio delegates available on the second ballot at the Republican National Convention. The obvious choice for those conservative delegates at this point is Senator Ted Cruz. The time has come to rally around a true conservative.
The roundup of Rubio supporters has begun. Rubio’s campaign manager tweeted out that all of their team should now support Cruz. Grassroots activists from around Virginia who supported Rubio have been on social media today expressing their new found support for the Cruz Crew. We expect Rubio to come out with an endorsement for his senate colleague in due time.
Ohio Governor John Kasich did his part for the Party last night. His win in Ohio kept 66 delegates from going to Rahm Emanuel donor Donald Trump. Thank you, Governor. Now it is time to exit. Kasich in the race splits the anti-Trump vote. With only 143 delegates Kasich is in distant fourth place. If he grabbed 100% of the remaining delegates then he would still be short on the first ballot. Kasich will have to close a 268 delegate gap with Cruz, an amount that is nearly impossible for Kasich overcome. He must be betting it all on California’s 173 delegates, which are allotted by winner-take-all based on each individual congressional district. Kasich has been endorsed by legend of the silver screen and former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, so maybe he thinks he carry most of California’s 53 congressional districts. But that will still keep him short of Cruz.
Kasich has had a constantly changing set of scenarios that have needed to play out for him. Now Kasich’s only path to victory is to come to the convention in third and leap over two others to win. Very unlikely that he could pull that off so he needs to help the Party by getting out of the race now and shift all of his supporters to Cruz. Every single Rubio supporter should join the Crew Cruz too. Only the Texas Senator can stop a Rahm Emanuel donor from becoming the standard bearer for the Republican Party.
Trump has 673 delegates right now. There are still 937 delegates from 20 states. 1,237 is the magic number. There is enough room for Trump to win, and there is enough room for Cruz to win too. Right now it is likely that neither will have enough delegates to win on the first ballot. We need to rally around Cruz so that we can nominate a conservative on the second ballot and be done with this nominating contest.
Who would you rather nominate? A US Senator who represents Texas or a high dollar donor to the Democratic Party? Time to Choose Cruz.
Today Mitt Romney decided to chime in on the presidential race. More specifically, Romney decided to go after Donald Trump. His speech was meant to rally Republicans around anyone but Trump but all it will do is strengthen Trump now and hurt him hard in the fall. Should Trump become the Republican nominee, this speech will be featured in a Hillary Clinton campaign ad, bet on it.
Romney took to the podium today as one of the “kind of” leaders of the Republican Party. “Kind of” because he was the last candidate the GOP nominated for president, but a lot of us didn’t like him then and we certainly don’t listen to him now. Nevertheless Romney has a following. His press conference today was designed to speak to that following, but did he think they hadn’t heard those lines already? We know the case against the fake conservative, silver spoon, real estate tycoon. Romney said absolutely nothing new. We get it.
Trump supporters seem to look pass the lack of bona fide conservative credentials and focus more on how Trump is shaking up the establishment. Well, Romney’s speech plays perfectly into the narrative that the establishment is out to get Trump. Romney resorted to name calling, he did not offer specifics, and he just cried about the sky falling. Romney’s words will sway zero Trump supporters toward another campaign and they won’t bring out anyone new to any of the competing campaigns.
At this point in the calendar Romney’s speech will only strengthen Trump’s numbers in the primary. Romney is not considered a stalwart conservative; his people are not Republican primary voters. But at a later point in the calendar, Romney’s words will be used to hurt Trump and they will have an impact. Expect a Clinton ad to run with black and white, grainy images of Trump partying with unpopular celebrities, like Tom Arnold (photo linked here), while we hear Romney saying that Trump’s “domestic policies would lead to recession. His foreign policies would make America and the world less safe. He has neither the temperament nor the judgement to be president.” This will turn off Republicans who only come out in general elections during presidential years. In certain swing states where the total will be close, Romney’s speech, in a well-made commercial, could have a significant impact.
And the worst part is Romney was too gutless to endorse a candidate, which made his rallying cry needlessly perplexing. Romney said we need to rally behind one of the candidates, but he is not offering any leadership if he doesn’t identify which one to rally behind. Keeping the field spilt helps Trump and all three of Trump’s competitors do not have a viable path to victory, so why not, at this point, pick a candidate?
Mitt Romney did not have to step forward, but he unfortunately did. It is too late in the calendar for this to impact the primary electorate, but it will hurt Trump if he becomes the nominee. Romney’s speech was a mistake. If you missed it, you can watch it here. Or, if Trump wins the nomination, then you can hear it again in a Clinton commercial, coming soon to media markets everywhere.